Mathematical models of within-host and transmission dynamics to determine effects of malaria interventions in a variety of transmission settings.

Eckhoff, Philip. “Mathematical models of within-host and transmission dynamics to determine effects of malaria interventions in a variety of transmission settings.” The American journal of tropical medicine and hygiene 88.5 (2013): 817-827.

The models that authors implement are simulated with a simple and detailed microsolver for the human agent’s infections with vector population dynamics. For the simple model, infections in humans are represented by exponentially-distributed duration of constant infectiousness.  With the baseline model, intervention strategies were added to the model with different combinations of these referred to as campaigns. Each event had a schedule with a specified start and end time with a specific frequency and number of repetition. These events also have a target demographic and coverage.  

The vector transmission model is responsible for keeping track of the vector mortality imposed by the intervention strategy and the transmission between humans and mosquitos. The within-host parasite model is governed by a microsolver with parasite and immune interactions.  There is a combination of discrete and continuous processes in the microsolver to represent parasite development and immune responses once a human receives a new infection. Intervention effects were modeled to have multiple effects and durability constants.  The basic vector model was parameterized for Namawala.  The other locations required fitting to be parameterized.

For validation, the baseline vector and parasite dynamics ith the impact of interventions for the Garki District were simulated. Different campaigns were also implemented.  Overall, they found that entomologic inoculation rate can vary from year to year even though there are no chagnes in control.  This variation results in complications when trying to monitor control programs.  The authors intensely highlight the importance modeling has in designing and implementing control campaigns.