This module will focus on deriving inferences in ecology. We will emphasize examples in which controversies exist, in part, because of the application of inferential tools and associated assumptions. As the first module of the course, we also will stress skills required to critically read the literature and effectively lead and participate in discussions.
Date
Topic
Readings, HW and things to think about
Thursday Aug 18
Patterns and the Scientific Method
- Why is there controversy in science?
Reading for today: Platt 1964, Reading the literature
HW for next time: Design a figure based on these data
Tuesday Aug 23
Observational vs Experimental Data
- Experimental design
- Controversy: examples
- Discussion of the figures you made
Reading: Hurlbert 1984
Thursday Aug 25
Classic Statistics and P-values
- Stats refresher
- Effect sizes
Reading: Osenberg et al. 2002
Cool thoughts: Effect size exercise
HW: Create an effect size measure for data you have collected or will collect
Tuesday Aug 30
Simplicity amid Complexity
- Fisheries management
- Model complexity and estimation
Reading: Ludwig and Walters 1985
Cool thoughts: Simpson's paradox
Thursday Sept 1
Worm 2006 Controversy:
- Discussion: How do different assumptions influence inference?
Reading: Myers and Worm 2003 + additional optional reading
Cool thoughts: Why most published research findings are false (Ioannidis)
HW: What do you think the role of scientists should be in environmental policy (e.g., in conservation or sustainability); i.e., how will you handle a request to "help us solve this problem." Come up with a real world example
Tuesday Sept 5
The Role of Science in Conservation and Policy
- Vignettes for discussion:
- Marine protected areas (considering alternatives)
- Declaration of funding (Greenpeace-Hilborn)
- Environmental bullies (tuna conservation)
Reading: